Integrasi Pasar Spasial Daging Sapi: Analisis Vector Error Correction Model terhadap Dinamika Harga Jakarta-NTT-Kalimantan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36423/baar.v8i1.2608Abstrak
Ketimpangan spasial antara produksi dan konsumsi daging sapi di Indonesia menciptakan dinamika perdagangan antarpulau yang berimplikasi pada mekanisme transmisi harga antarpasar. Penelitian ini bertujuan menguji hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang antara harga daging sapi di empat wilayah, menganalisis dinamika hubungan jangka panjang dan pendek serta kecepatan penyesuaian harga dan mengidentifikasi pola kausalitas dan hierarki pasar. Wilayah yang dipilih memiliki karakteristik berbeda: DKI Jakarta sebagai pusat konsumen dan impor, Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT) sebagai sentra produksi, serta Kalimantan Selatan (Kalsel) dan Kalimantan Timur (Kaltim) sebagai wilayah defisit. Menggunakan data harga harian periode Januari 2021-Agustus 2024, penelitian menerapkan uji kointegrasi Johansen, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) dan uji kausalitas Granger. Hasil menunjukkan keempat pasar terintegrasi penuh (fully cointegrated) dalam jangka panjang dengan empat vektor kointegrasi. Kecepatan penyesuaian harga berbeda antarwilayah, dengan NTT tercepat (37,89% per hari) dan Jakarta terlambat (8,76% per hari). Uji kausalitas mengidentifikasi Jakarta sebagai leading market dengan pengaruh signifikan terhadap Kalsel, sementara NTT sebagai sentra produksi mempengaruhi Jakarta, Kalsel dan Kaltim dalam kerangka VECM. Pola kausalitas menunjukkan hierarki pasar Jakarta-NTT-Kalsel/Kaltim, mencerminkan aliran informasi harga dari pasar konsumen utama ke produsen dan wilayah defisit.
Kata Kunci: Integrasi Pasar, Daging Sapi, VECM, Transmisi Harga.
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